u/ro2778

As Musk says, the capacity for developing high bandwidth memory is increasing by 20% each year and the demand is increasing by 200% each year and it's incredibly difficult product to make. It's already sold out among the 3 major producers, Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung for 2027 with 2028 filling up. So I think there will be shortages until 2030 and therefore, even if there is a cycle it will still take years for the cycle to peak. I think Micron will end up at 1/3 the market cap of NVDA as a base estimate. If Mu had a maket cap at 1/3 of NVDA and all other factors were the same, the current share price would be $1570, however the share price is likely to go much higher because they are going to havea huge amount of cash and will return excess cash to share holders with share buy backs starting in December 2026. I think we could easily see $2000 in 2027. The only concern I have is a black swan, specifically China invading Taiwan. And I think the most likely time frame for that is towards the end of October in 2027. If the world survives in relatively good shape such an event would also create a great buying opportunity, but it's hard to mitigate that risk. So I'll probably reduce my expose to the semi-conductor industry from summer 2027 onwards. However, until then assuming China doesn't invade Taiwan this October/November (that window is considered the most likely time for an attack due to favourable weather conditions), then I think Micron will do very well as the cyclical narrative fades with every quarterly report. 2027 or 2028 is likely to be the period of time for maximum demand and the peak supply shortage for HBM. Of the 3 main players, Micron is also best positioned due to proximity to major customers based in USA.