u/Administrative-Ant75

Projections for CY27 ft. Napkin Math Disclaimer: This was originally written as a reply to someone's comment concerned about valuation and trailing PE being exceptionally high. I thought I could add some of my own insights through some good 'ol napkin math. I've been through my fair share of parabolic stocks, and the biggest mistake I've made was being ultra-conservative before massive upward movements come (ex. Tesla, Palantir, Shopify, to name a few). So this time, I will just write what I believe will happen as the median case. TL;DR - I see around 8 GW of GPUs + a metric shit ton of CPUs selling in CY27. OpenAI should be 3 GW, meta around 2 GW, Anthropic 2 GW, and the rest through MSFT / Oracle for 1 GW or so. So napkin math says 8 GW \* 20 billion per GW = 160 billion CPU side should print money like bananas. Would not be surprised to see 60 billion+ in the year to be honest. So total could be upwards of 220 billion. It was revealed in Intel's 8-k that ASPs for their CPUs went up 40%+, and given that they haven't optimized for Agentic AI like Turin and Venice variants have, I think this is completely reasonable. Of course, there's dilution in the Gpu deals so don't expect Nvidia margins...... BUT, there should be a lot of upside left if these numbers are anywhere close to reality. At the very least, we should flip AVGO's market cap to become the #2 most valuable semiconductor company, meaning $1,000+ price target, assuming $30 earnings per share @ a 34 PE in 2027. Intuitively, this makes a lot of sense. I respect Broadcom and Hock Tan a lot, but AMD has a much broader portfolio that spans across CPUs, GPUs, networking (inferior to Broadcom, to be fair), and FPGAs - the last of which may become extremely important for edge inference and humanoid robotics.