u/JWcommander217

Technical Analysis for AMD 7/30--------Pre-Market Jeeeeeeesus Christ what a wild 48 hours huh??? Yesterday I was going to type all about how this was finally rolling over and looking for the Fed to be the adults in the room. Instead we got the bond market fully calling Warsh's bluff. He said the fed is hitting 2% inflation no matter what. And they said yeaaaaaaa right we doubt it. They think there is no way he is going to raise rates as more and more Fed members start warming up to the idea. Here is the problem we've got: I'm not really sure there is much that the Fed can do to pull the levers on the current inflation problem. We are clearly seeing that the economy overall is struggling with growth especially with hiring and job creation. So the restrictive monetary policy has had the effect that we were hoping to get with cooling down the economy. Then why is inflation so bad??? Well bad decisions that the Fed really has no control over whatsoever. Tariffs are inflationary...........I feel like we heard that somewhere. Iran and oil and Ukraine vs Russia.......it just gets worse and worse. But that is really completely out of control of the Fed. Throw in incredibly heavy AI DC spend and an aging power grid with crappy insufficient power production and we just have a recipe for inflation even if the Fed gave us a full 1% raise that threw us into a recession. It ain't gonna move the needle sadly. Why do we care???? Well Meta's earnings are one of the first warning shots that I think we should be concerned about. AMD has had a really good relationship with Meta and they were an early adopter of our tech stack. Their free cash flow weakness is signaling two things to me: 1. their biggest revenue driver is ad sales and companies are scaling back their marketing due to weakening consumer demand sooooo the canary is dying in the coal mine everyone. 2. the incredible AI DC spend is starting to weigh on earnings as well and we are finally seeing some limits to AI spend. Now MSFT came to the rescue and said yeaaaaa no we aren't slowing down at all anytime soon. Both are very different businesses and I would argue that MSFT revenue streams are way more protected than META's for sure. But I do think we could be looking at some early concerns where the sheer amount of AI DC Debt and the ability to finance that debt is becoming concerning. The interest alone on that debt is going to eat into FCF for these companies for the future, especially if the monetization case with AI isn't there. I do think it will be interesting to see what happens here. Obviously the ability of these companies to refinance their DC debt at lower rates would be ideal for continued AI DC spend and I'm not sure that the bond market and the Fed is going to comply. But a raise???? Could that slow more AI DC spend??? Just trying to think a bit about what the future holds for AMD earnings as we come up on it. I've been saying for a solid month now that the AMD chart is dog shit even though the price has been staying okayish. It finally is rolling over and breaking down a bit and I think we are close to bottoming out. Post Fed day I think we are getting a little relief rally today but I think we still have some further downside to go. I do think we will break lower towards that $400 level before earnings but I don't want to start fighting over pennies with earnings right around the corner. The biggest thing as well we gotta keep an eye on as well is Lisa. Lisa needs to be optimistic. If she does her sandbagging bullshit we are toast. Maybe she needs to "catch a cold" or something? But anyone but Jean.