u/mhkwar56

I spent a lot of the last quarter trading my AMD after holding it for a year, and I got annoyed that I was left holding it as it dropped to $430, but after Advancing AI and this ER, I have no interest in trading this again unless we go comfortably above $600 this quarter. The upside is just too immense, and we will almost certainly be looking at $800-1,000 by EoY 2027. Even if it goes above $600 right now, there's still a 33% - 66% upside within a year. That starts to be more reasonable for the risk, but even still, so much of AMD's demand is settled 1+ year ahead of time when it comes to data center that the odds will remain heavily skewed towards the reward side of the spectrum. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the ride until the market gives me an offer that actually tempts me.

Honestly, I think I might be grateful for this in the long run, because I'm pretty sure that AMD will be around $1,000 by EoY 2027, and when we run up too fast without any consolidation it increases my urge to sell.. Lisa is outrageously bullish right now, and she is an honest woman. I ran through the numbers and the Q&A with Claude, and it validated my napkin-math expectations: # FY2026: ~$54B revenue, ~$8.20 EPS Q3 is guided at $13B. Data Center falls out around $8B within that, consistent with Su saying server would grow "over 80% in the second half" Y/Y. Q4 Data Center at \~$14B. Helios shipments begin at the end of Q3 and ramp into Q4. Su: "Q3 is the very beginning of the ramp, Q4 is a step up, and then Q1 will be a further step up." She also said Helios volumes are running ahead of AMD's initial forecast and that supply exists to "more than meet" their targets. That gets FY26 Data Center to \~$34.4B (+107%), Client and Gaming to \~$15.5B (+7%), Embedded to \~$3.9B (+13%), and total revenue to \~$54B (+55%). Non-GAAP gross margin at \~55.5%. Hu said server CPU is accretive to gross margin and DC AI is only "slightly below corporate average." EPS nearly doubles from FY25's $4.17. # FY2027: ~$108B revenue, ~$20.30 EPS Su told Rasgon that the data center segment would be "well over 100%" Y/Y in 2027. Then Muse asked about \~$30B of Instinct revenue and Su told him his number was "probably too low" and repeated that "over 100% should be considered well over 100%." She walked a sell-side number higher, unprompted, twice on the same call. The backing: 6GW committed with OpenAI, 6GW with Meta, 2GW with Anthropic, most landing in 2027. Plus sovereign AI and other hyperscaler commitments. Su confirmed "very good visibility" into HBM allocation for 2027. 150% Data Center growth gets \~$86B DC, \~$108B total. Gross margin at \~54.5% — Hu framed server CPU, embedded recovery, and client as margin tailwinds offsetting the slightly-below-average DC AI mix, and said opex would grow below revenue. That produces \~$20.30 EPS. Hu closed the call saying EPS "will be significantly higher than $20 we outlined at our Financial Analyst Day." That $20 was a 2030 target. # Valuation: ~$950–1,000 NVDA's trailing P/E compressed its entire ramp — \~132x in early 2023, \~65x end of 2023, \~55x end of 2024, \~46x end of 2025, \~31x today. The stock 10x'd on earnings delivery, not multiple expansion. $20.30 at 30x (NVDA today) = \~$610. At 40x = \~$810. At 46x (NVDA end of 2025) = \~$935. At 55x (NVDA end of 2024) = \~$1,115. Forward P/E cross-check: \~$32 of 2028 EPS at 25–35x gives $800–1,120. Margin-adjusted P/S cross-check (discounting NVDA's \~25x for AMD's thinner margins) gives \~$920. Converges on \~$950–1,000 by end of 2027. At $490 today, AMD already trades \~24x FY27 on this model — the return comes from earnings arriving, not multiple expansion. Same mechanism that drove NVDA.